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ISSN Online: 2377-424X

ISBN Print: 0-85295-345-3

International Heat Transfer Conference 10
August, 14-18, 1994, Brighton, UK

SENSITIVITY OF THERMAL BURN MODEL PARAMETERS IN PREDICTING WOUND SEVERITY

Get access (open in a dialog) DOI: 10.1615/IHTC10.150
pages 281-286

要約

Mathematical models serve an important function in the understanding and prediction of the severity of burn injuries as a function of the parameters of the thermal insult. Nearly all models are formulated on the assumption that the injury process obeys an Arrhenius type of kinetics, for which tissue constitutive properties are required to describe an exponential activation energy and a linear scaling factor. The values for these properties are derived from experimental burn data for which there may be a large degree of uncertainty and variability. This paper presents an analysis of the variability of the predicted severity and extent of burn injury as a function of the uncertainty in the parameter values. The results indicate that relatively small changes in the model parameters can produce large differences in the predicted severity of burn injury. Variations associated within the range of the nominal confidence limits of the experimental data from which the constants were derived may account for a major portion of a whole degree of injury differential (between first and second).